The SOI (southern Oscillation Index) is in it's positive phase which tells us that the atmospheric set-up in the south ocean continues to reflect La Nina while CFS V2 forecast a moderate La Nina to continue through to winter 2020/21. Winter-Wetter 2020/21: Meteorologe wagt erste Prognose Viel Schnee haben die meisten Deutschen in den vergangenen Jahren nicht gerade zu Gesicht bekommen. Putting all of the winters together we than all Decembers combined following the top 20 wettest Octobers for England and Wales precipitation are favoured to be very wet with deep low pressure over the UK and western Europe. Wird das Wetter im Winter 2020/21 in Deutschland wirklich so extrem, wie einige Experten befürchten. The SOI (southern oscillation index) continues to become increasingly positive. So gradually the winter 2020/21 updates are swinging towards a mild at the moment. A much milder and wetter month looks probable here. The ninth winter 2020/21 update (part one) will be released tomorrow (Sunday 1st November) while part two will be released on Monday 2nd November. A wet and mild month would be favoured. 1984/1985 was a cold winter but had a mild December. Nevertheless because the easterly QBO is currently trapped at the top of the stratosphere where it's also gaining strength we think there's a possibility is might see it descend quickly this winter. We have seen 31 total storms, 30 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. Niemand konnte auch nur 2 Wochen vorher ahnen, dass uns der kalte und schneereiche Dezember 2010 bevorstand", heißt es auf dem Kachelmann-Portal. 1976 was another year that was cold in December to early January and then became very mild in February 1977. Winds would be from a westerly direction and a milder than average winter would be expected. It will almost certainly be a top 20 but will it be a top 10 or a to 20 to 10? The SOI (Southern-Oscillation-Index) has been in a more negative phase over the past week ( which is an atmospheric state more reflective of El Nino) but the past day or so has seen the SOI go much positive which is an atmospheric set up reflective of La Nina and is what you would expect given the strengthening La Nina signal in the Pacific Ocean. Looking back through the archives we see that total snow coverage is now probably close to average with several years having less snow across Siberia at this point and several years having more Siberian snow cover at this point. These Marchs could be drier and prbably quite mild. The huge Atlantic hurricane season goes on with an incredible 24 depressions and 23 tropical storms so far this season. Anders sieht es beim Thema Klima aus: Die langfristige, durchschnittliche Entwicklung der Temperaturen und Niederschläge ist recht sicher dokumentiert und prognostiziert - und auf genau diese gefährliche Entwicklung sollen eben Begriffe wie "Rekord-" oder "Horror-Winter" hinweisen. If it pushes into north America is can bring cold weather to Canada and north America. We have now gone past the half way point on the winter updates! A mixed bag but certainly not without interest for this final set of analogous in terms of a cold winter for 2020/21. Laut Jung soll es 3 Grad wärmer werden als im Klimamittel. Could La Nina has already peaked as a moderate event and could it be starting to become an eastern based La Nina again? Part two of the ninth winter 2020/21 update looks at La Nina and all the potential various connotations of La Nina on the winter. All Marchs combined seems to have lower pressure to our south which could bring us a cooler and more unsettled month. The trends remain the same excluding all years before 1950 though the early winter period perhaps has slightly more cold potential while the late winter period looks cold too. Finally we look at the overlap years for this update (that's the years that appeared for both the October CET and rainfall analogues) which were - 1903, 1976 and 2004. Der Wetterkanal des ehemaligen Wetterfroschs Jörg Kachelmann hält wenig von den Langzeit-Wettervorhersagen. These SST changes swing against the idea of a tripole for winter 2020/21 which we discussed in last weeks eighth winter update. All winters combined following hyperactive hurricane seasons for ACE look cold with high pressure within the northern latitudes and an increased chance of cold north or north easterly winds. All Januarys combined shows a massive increase in northern blocking with high pressure favoured between Norway and Greenland and a trough of low pressure over and to the south of the country. However that's just the ast few days. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is forecast to remain neutral to weakly negative for the start of this winter, perhaps going neutral to weakly positive later. Dealing with westerly QBO winters first of all. As well as being very unsettled there's a chance the Januarys could be colder. These Februarys are 50/50 between being cold and wintry or mild and wet but on balance the strength of the Scandi High signal possibly tips the balance towards colder conditions. The first batch of analogues for this years winter 2020/21 updates looks at August's CET (Central England Temperature) August 2020 CET came in at 17.6 and was within the top 15 warmest August's on CET record back to 1659 so we look at winters following Augusts with a CET range of 17.5 to 19.2 (19.s is the hottest August on record from 1995) - this is the same CET range we looked at in the final Autumn 2020 update and so this connects the winter updates to the autumn updates. ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is now has increased by over 20 points compared to last week and the 2020 hurricane season is now "above average". Doch wie viel ist an den Prognosen wirklich dran? All Decembers combined still has cold snap potential from a north west to south east jet stream alignment but otherwise most of the winter months flip to favour westerlies more. The Atlantic looks to be in it's warmest state for several years. Overall the winters following the September pattern matches are mild and dry winters. GWV Winter 2020/21 Forecast will be released on Wednesday 2nd December. JAMSTEC is forecasting a milder than average winter for the UK and Ireland. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is positive at the moment and forecast to become even stronger over the next week before dropping to below average in in week two. All winters combined following Septembers with 30C+ temperatures are very unsettled overall with a large area of low pressure over the UK and western Europe. Precipitation anomalies are expected to be drier than average. All Marchs combined also look unsettled with lower pressure to the west and south west. DWD MSLP anomaly for winter 2020/21 shows higher pressure right over the top of the country. Heights rise slightly within the northern latitudes but these above average heights (high pressure) probably aren't strong enough to force the jet stream southwards and send is cold. The 2020 hurricane season continues, So far we have had 29 total depressions, 27 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes and 4 major hurricane. Solar activity continues to be at very low levels with no visible sunspots on the solar disc today. These December look wet and mild. For part two of the eleventh witner 20/21 update we look at winters following big hurricane seasons! There has not been any further strengthening of La Nina since last week and we can see that La Nina may have peaked at the end of October. Worauf wir … Temperatures at 10hpa and 30hpa in the stratosphere are colder than average and zonal winds at 10hpa are forecast to power up to near record strong levels by the start of winter 2020/21. Putting these winters together we see that December generally favours mild and wet weather, January favours mild and unsettled weather too. Wenn Sie auf einen dieser Links klicken und darüber einkaufen, bekommen wir eine Provision vom Händler. Everything is signalling a strong polar vortex and westerly/zonal flow for the next couple of weeks at least. The seventh winter 2020/21 update starts with our latest swingometer. CFS V2 forecasts La Nina to become stronger and develop into a super Nina by winter 2020/21. But Richard isn't done there. Part two this week is focusing on the QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) - we're looking at winters that are westerly QBO's and, just in case we get a quick transition from west to east QBO (we're not expecting this but it remains a possibility albeit a low risk one) we're also looking at winters that transition from to west to east QBO. This is the negative NAO state that, when associated with a negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) state, can produce cold weather during the Winter for the UK and Europe. Most of Russia and Siberia is snow free (as you would expect in the beginning of September) while arctic sea ice is moving towards it's minimum extent for the year - This is another massive melt season but so far we remain short of 2012 record minimum - although there is still a week or so of melting to go. "Erinnern Sie sich an den Dezember 2010, als uns fast den ganzen Monat kalte Luftmassen und immer wieder kräftige Schneefälle beeinflussten? The last thing we look at is numbers 20 to 10 snowiest Octobers for Eurasia since records began in 1967 and this provides an intriguing twist. We then try to identify some August and summer 500z pattern matches. The sixth winter 2020/21 update starts with our latest swingometer. The QBO (Quasi-Biennial-Oscillation) continues to be in it's westerly phase with the easterly QBO remaining at the top levels of the atmosphere in the stratosphere. We attempt to do some September pattern matching. Orkanartige Windböen möglich. This is a signal for blocking and could mean the first half of October are likely to be cold and wet. You'll find out at start of the winter 2020/21 forecast how the swingometer looks after the complete thirteen updates. E-MAIL. The eighth winter 2020/21 update begins with the latest swingometer updated to the end of last weeks seventh winter 20/21 update. All winters combined following September England and Wales precipitation of 49-59mm Looks unsettled with low pressure dominating across western Europe. If we do the AO will drop through the floor! Part two of the thirteenth winter 20/21 update will focus on November and Autumn data. We are expecting the easterly QBO to return in 2021 but we think it will probably happen after winter 2020/21. Temperature anomalies are about average to possibly slightly below normal. The Indian Ocean has seen some slight warming compared to last week but the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) remains neutral to weakly negative and is forecast to stay in that state until December at least. Doch Schneefall zu Weihnachten war schon früher selten, wie unser Faktencheck zeigt. And if all that wasn't enough we have a "sneak peek" at the UKMO GloSea5 seasonal model, CFS V2, CANSPIS, Jamtec and the Being Climate Center to see what they are all showing for winter 2020/21 at this very early stage - there are three winter 2020/21 seasonal model round-ups in September, October and November to come. The massive 2020 Atlantic storm and hurricane season goes on. Wetterprognosen und Meteorologen sehen für die kommenden Wintermonate nicht weiß, sondern schwarz. This could be a colder signal for March although northern blocking isn't as strong as it is in January. The solar activity tracker shows the trend lines continue to flatline on the floor of the chart despite one tiny sunspot emerging a couple of days ago. All winters combined following the top 20 wettest Octobers post 1950 looks very unsettled with deep low pressure over the top of the UK. We're expecting a very big season but if we get it what would the implications be? Besonders in den tiefen Bodenschichten ist sie weiterhin stark ausgeprägt. Ein Meteorologe redet jetzt Klartext. The last updates will be released on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. The sixth winter 2020/21 update (part two) will look at September > winter rainfall data. The northern Pacific Ocean is still trying to cool down particularly in the north eastern Pacific while the Indian Ocean remains close to neutral for the IOD. October 2020 Eurasian snow cover came out as the 19th snowiest back to 1967. An interesting note with which to end the second winter 2020/21 update. This is quite a significant from mild to cold from last weeks fifth winter 20/21 update. These Decembers are favoured on average to be cold with north east winds and a risk of wintry weather. Durchschnittlich sollen die Temperaturen im Dezember nur geringfügig unter den Gefrierpunkt sinken. Laut Langfrist-Prognose der US-Wetterbehörde NOAA, des europäischen Wetterdienstes und auch des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) müsse sich Deutschland offenbar auf einen weiteren Wärmewinter einstellen. How surprising that a strong westerly QBO has a greater chance of being cold compared to the west to east transition winters! Arctic sea ice has reached it's minimum extent for 2020. CFS V2 forecasts La Nina to become very strong by the end of the year but it probably over the top and a weaker (but still moderate) La Nina event is still likely. Perhaps if snow cover builds up quickly over Eurasia in October the Siberian will tend t push into northern Europe but if it builds up too quickly and is too extreme the Siberian High will be more likely to push over the Pole to Canada (which then favorus a milder winter for northern Europe)? Starting CANSIPS MSLP (Mean-Sea-Level-Pressure) anomaly which shows low pressure to our north west and high pressure to our south west. This week we have seen a massive swing from mild to cold! September 2020 had an England and Wales rainfall of 54mm so we look at winters following Septembers with an England and Wales precipitation range of 49mm to 59mm - placing September 2020 nicely in the middle of that range. Despite this massive number of storms and tropical storms ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) for 2020 is only at 101.36 which is about average. This forecast will be evaluated when we reach the end of the season. There's just one more update to go (the thirteenth as well as a final winter 20/21 seasonal model round-up. The 2020 hurricane season continues to ramp up in the tropical Atlantic. There are just a handful of years that had less snow across Eurasia and Scandinavia at this point in the year! Overall a La Nina pattern persists and CFS V2 forecasts a strong La Nina for winter 2020/21. We wait to see how the swingometer looks after this fourth winter 20/21 update. All winters combined following Octobers with a CET range of 10.4 to 10.6 look unsettled with low pressure over and to the south of the UK and higher pressure to the north and west. We're probably quite close to ling term averages for snow cover across Siberia for early October. The central part of the ENSO regions has possible warmed very slightly over the past could of weeks while the eastern part of the ENSO may have cooled slightly. We've pretty much ruled out a weak La Nina as currently La Nina is at moderate levels and will almost certainly stay moderate or develop further to become strong. Eurasian snow cover hasn't changed greatly over the past week with just a few snow patches appearing in the far eastern corner of Siberia. SST anomalies show that La Nina has continues to strengthen through the central part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies have now dropped to around 1.6C below average. TEILEN. TWITTERN. All winters combined following the top 20 to 10 snowiest Octobers look very cold and wintry now with blocking high pressure centered over Greenland and the Arctic while low pressure is centered over over and to the east of the UK.

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